Can Romney Beat Obama, Part III
About a month ago, I thought the election was over. Obama was leading Romney in almost all of the major swing states, the Republican National Convention had failed, and I was all but prepared to march to defeat in November. However, with a stunning debate performance, Romney surged back into the race. He took the lead in Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri, states he must win in order to take the White House. In addition, he drastically cut the President’s leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Once again, Romney had a chance.
However, I remain a realist. Despite my euphoria, I believe that Obama, not Romney, will be inaugurated in January. Although Romney will likely win North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, I do not think he’ll win Ohio. That loss, coupled with losses in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa, will sink his campaign and give Obama a second term in the White House.
My complete predictions can be found below. For reference, I predict that “solid” states will be won by 5% or more and “lean” states will be won by less than 5%.
Solid Obama: 237 electoral votes (18 states, District of Columbia)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Massachusetts (11), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
Leans Obama: 53 electoral votes (6 states)
Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10)
Leans Romney: 68 electoral votes (4 states)
Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13)
Solid Romney: 180 electoral votes (22 states)
Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Alaska (3), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
Overall Result of the 2012 Presidential Election: President Barack Obama (290) defeats Governor Mitt Romney (248). The popular vote will be much closer. I predict a 50%-49% split in favor of the President.